| Generally speaking, being in first place on Memorial | | | | his 5.03 ERA isn't going to get it done down the |
| Day is a good sign of things to come. Memorial Day | | | | stretch. |
| typically marks the one-third mark for the Major | | | | At the plate, the Diamondbacks aren't going to kill you |
| League Baseball season, and by this point you have a | | | | with the long ball, but they have a solid lineup. Chad |
| pretty good idea of which teams are going to be in the | | | | Tracy is building on his superb 2005 with eight homers, |
| running and which teams are dead and buried. | | | | a .292 average and a .849 OPS so far. Eric Byrnes |
| For instance, it's fairly common knowledge on May 29 | | | | may wind up the 2006 comeback player of the year |
| that the Royals aren't going to be challenging for the | | | | and appears to have found a home in the desert. |
| AL Central crown at 11-37, 22 1/2 games behind the | | | | Byrnes went from Oakland to Colorado to Baltimore in |
| 35-16 Tigers. Of course, we probably knew that the | | | | 2005, but in 2006 he's not going anywhere while hitting |
| Royals wouldn't be contenders entering the season | | | | .322 with six homers and a .938 OPS. Top prospect |
| anyway, but now we're certain of it. | | | | Conor Jackson is proving that he can live up to the |
| At the same time, there aren't many people outside of | | | | expectations as he's hitting .297 with five homers and |
| the Dallas-Fort Worth region who expected the | | | | a .861 OPS. Shawn Green and Luis Gonzalez are |
| Rangers to be in first place come Memorial Day, and | | | | having their usually solid seasons as well. Arizona |
| I'd be willing to bet that even some of the more loyal | | | | also plays solid defense. However, it's |
| Rangers fans would have to be honest with | | | | not going to be easy for the Snakes to hold off the |
| themselves before claiming that they saw it coming. | | | | Dodgers (who are outhitting and outpitching them right |
| How good of an indicator of future success is being in | | | | now), but Arizona has the potential to get better. |
| first place on Memorial Day? Since 1990 (excluding the | | | | Keeping that in mind, as well as the fact that Nomar |
| strike year of 1994), the 82 division leaders on the last | | | | Garciaparra and J.D. Drew will likely spend significant |
| Monday in May have gone on to hold their leads and | | | | time on the disabled list this season for L.A., and the |
| win their divisions 47 times. That's a 57% rate. | | | | Diamondbacks should continue to lead the division |
| In 2005, the Marlins, Cardinals, Padres, Orioles, White | | | | throughout. |
| Sox and Rangers were leading their divisions on | | | | Worst Bets |
| Memorial Day. At the end of the year, the Cards, | | | | The Red Sox, Rangers and Mets are the three teams |
| Padres and White Sox held on. while the Braves, Red | | | | poised to fall out of their present frontrunning spots. |
| Sox and Angels rallied up to win theirs. | | | | Boston's lineup was the premier one in baseball the |
| Three of the six teams leading on Memorial Day in | | | | past two seasons. This season, the Red Sox are |
| 2004 ended up carrying their divisions at the end of | | | | seventh in baseball with 265 runs scored. They're |
| the year as well. Only once since 1990 have all six | | | | trailing AL East contenders Toronto and New York in |
| teams ahead on Memorial Day won their division; that | | | | that department. The Red Sox currently are 13th in |
| was in 1998, when the Braves, Astros, Padres, | | | | team ERA at 4.47, five spots below the Yankees. |
| Yankees, Indians and Rangers pulled it off. The fewest | | | | Boston's rotation isn't that good (4.78 ERA), and |
| teams to manage the feat since realignment in 1995 | | | | Jonathan Papelbon is about the only saving grace in |
| was two, occurring in 1995 and in 2001. | | | | the bullpen. Manny Ramirez has finally broken out of |
| So while a Memorial Day lead is a fairly good indicator, | | | | his early-season slump, but there are still significant |
| it's far from a guarantee. Just ask the 2005 Baltimore | | | | weak spots in the lineup. Jason Varitek is only hitting |
| Orioles, the 2004 Cincinnati Reds or the 2001 | | | | .232, and Alex Gonzalez is hitting .227 (with a |
| Philadelphia Phillies (three teams to suffer huge | | | | staggering .295 OBP). David Ortiz is hitting homers, but |
| dropoffs from Memorial Day through the end of their | | | | not for the same average or OPS as he has in |
| respective seasons). | | | | seasons past (he's at .270 and .915, respectively, in |
| As of May 29th this season, the Red Sox, Tigers, | | | | 2006). Coco Crisp was supposed to be the answer in |
| Rangers, Mets, Cardinals and Diamondbacks are | | | | center field, but he's played just six games thus far. |
| leading the way. According to the trends of the past | | | | The Sox have been pleasantly surprised by Kevin |
| 15 full seasons, about half of those teams will end up | | | | Youkilis, Mike Lowell and Mark Loretta, and they should |
| holding on to win their divisions. | | | | wind up closer to the top of the league in runs scored |
| Best Bets | | | | before everything's said and done. |
| I expect the Tigers, Cardinals and Diamondbacks to | | | | However, Boston's pitching figures to continue to |
| hold on their leads. | | | | struggle. Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling have been |
| Though the Tigers only have a two-game lead in the | | | | good thus far, with Beckett putting up a 7-1 record and |
| AL Central on the defending World Series champion | | | | a 3.80 ERA, while Schilling has managed an 8-2 record |
| White Sox, their team is built to hold onto that lead. | | | | and a 3.93 ERA. The rest of the rotation has been |
| Detroit's pitching has been superlative, and the Tigers | | | | unstable. The Red Sox have five guys in the bullpen |
| may have a rotation that's more solid up and down | | | | that they have been relying on, and only two of them |
| than the White Sox. The Tigers lead MLB with a 3.36 | | | | are sure things. The Yankees aren't much better in the |
| ERA, with the White Sox a distant sixth at 4.13. The | | | | pen, but they are pitching and hitting better so far. The |
| Detroit rotation has compiled a 3.39 ERA thus far, led | | | | Yankees will likely catch up to Boston and overtake |
| by Justin Verlander's 2.55 ERA and 7-3 record. Nate | | | | their rival. |
| Robertson is enjoying a breakout year with a 5-2 | | | | The Rangers have a surprising three-game lead over |
| mark and a 3.02 ERA. Former 20-game loser Mike | | | | the A's, but they're only 26-24, and the other three |
| Maroth is faring much better in 2006 with a 5-2 record | | | | teams in their division should make up ground. The |
| and a 3.56 ERA. Kenny Rogers is 7-3 with a 3.76 | | | | pitching in Texas isn't very good, as the Rangers are |
| ERA. Jeremy Bonderman rounds out the young | | | | 18th in baseball with a 4.81 ERA. Both the Mariners and |
| rotation (other than Rogers), going 5-4 thus far with a | | | | A's are pitching better than Texas. The Rangers are |
| 4.61 ERA. In the bullpen, Todd Jones has shown he | | | | leading the AL West because they're outhitting the A's, |
| remains the solid closer he proved to be in Florida last | | | | Mariners and Angels by a significant margin. |
| season, saving 16 games with a 3.12 ERA. Joel | | | | Texas is 9th in the league in runs scored with 258. On |
| Zumaya is proving to be the closer of the future, | | | | the other hand, Seattle is 20th with 234 runs, Oakland |
| putting up a 3.22 ERA and averaging 10.88 strikeouts | | | | is 23rd (223) and the Angels are 25th (221). What's |
| per nine innings. It's safe to assume, based on track | | | | surprising is that Texas isn't hitting home runs at its |
| record, that the Tigers may be pitching over their | | | | typical pace. Kevin Mench leads the team with 10. |
| heads. The league average for team ERA is hovering | | | | Mark Teixeira only has five and is hitting just .284. |
| around 4.50, meaning that Detroit has pitched a run | | | | Michael Young is hitting .311, but can improve on that. |
| better than the rest of the league. That's a historically | | | | Phil Nevin has nine homers, as does Brad Wilkerson. |
| dominating team pitching performance. | | | | Neither of them are hitting that well (.220 and .262, |
| While it's safe to assume that the pitching will drop off | | | | respectively). The lineup is going to be better, but it's |
| slightly, it's also reasonable to assume that Detroit's | | | | reasonable to assume the pitching will fall off. |
| hitting should pick up. The Tigers are currently 12th in | | | | The Texas rotation is running basically four deep at |
| baseball in runs scored, seventh in team batting | | | | this point. Kevin Millwood is supposed to be the ace, |
| average and eighth in team OPS. Not shabby by any | | | | but he's putting up a 4.88 ERA with a 5-3 record. |
| means, but the team is getting next to nothing out of | | | | Vicente Padilla, Kameron Loe and John Koronka are all |
| injured Dmitri Young, a .217 batting average from | | | | posting remarkably similar numbers. Every starter is in |
| Brandon Inge, a .254 average from Craig Monroe and | | | | the mid 4.00 ERA range, all are in the 1.35 WHIP range, |
| just three homers from Ivan Rodriguez. Chris Shelton | | | | and all have about 65 innings pitched under their belts. |
| has cooled off slightly, but that has coincided with the | | | | Akinori Otsuka has taken the closer's job with |
| resurgence of Magglio Ordonez. Thus the potential is | | | | his 2.31 ERA and eight saves from Francisco Cordero. |
| there for the lineup to be even better. | | | | The Texas pitching isn't at the level of Oakland's or |
| In the NL Central, no team is on the same level | | | | even Seattle's. Though the Rangers will outhit both of |
| as the Cardinals (unless Houston gets Roger Clemens | | | | those teams and the Angels easily, the pitching and the |
| back). The Cards are second in baseball and tops in | | | | bullpen will come back to bite them. The A's will likely |
| the NL with a 3.81 team ERA. The Reds, who trail the | | | | turn it on around midseason and blow past the |
| Cardinals by four games, are way back in 12th in team | | | | Rangers en route to a division title. |
| ERA at 4.44. St. Louis also is tops in the NL Central in | | | | The Mets are one of the more talented teams in |
| runs scored, batting average and team OPS. Oh, and | | | | baseball and have a four-game lead over the Braves |
| some guy named Pujols is destroying nearly every | | | | in the NL East. They're even outpitching the Braves by |
| baseball thrown to him. The Reds are close, but they | | | | a comfortable margin. The Mets are third in baseball |
| can't make up that gap with the pitching being so | | | | with a 3.89 ERA, while the Braves are 10th with a 4.36 |
| inferior compared to the Cardinals' rotation. Chris | | | | ERA. What's surprising that the Braves are outhitting |
| Carpenter is on the DL, which hurts, but the Cardinals' | | | | the potent Mets, scoring 267 runs compared to the |
| rotation is one of the deepest around with Mark | | | | Mets' 246. But considering how much better the |
| Mulder, Jeff Suppan, Sidney Ponson and Jason | | | | pitching has been, it bodes well for the Mets. So why |
| Marquis. In the bullpen, St. Louis is led by Jason | | | | are they in this category? Because the Braves are the |
| Isringhausen and his 16 saves. Adam Wainwright, Josh | | | | Braves. They were trailing the Marlins at Memorial Day |
| Hancock, Brad Thompson, Randy Flores and Braden | | | | in the previous two seasons and came back to take |
| Looper round out a pen that hasn't skipped a beat | | | | the division. The Mets have gotten superb production |
| despite returning just one pitcher from 2005 | | | | out of the middle of the lineup, but the rest of the |
| (Isringhausen). The Reds may wind up holding on to | | | | squad leaves something to be desired. Carlos Delgado |
| second place in the NL Central, but they're not going to | | | | has 15 homers and a .263 average, while David Wright |
| unseat the Cards. | | | | is hitting .333 with eight homers. Carlos Beltran is hitting |
| The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are a better | | | | .277 but has an impressive 14 homers. Even Xavier |
| team than given credit for, and they have the fortune | | | | Nady has gotten into the act with nine homers while |
| of playing in a weak NL West. The division has played | | | | batting .270. Cliff Floyd has been a disappointment with |
| better this season than in 2005, when the 82-80 | | | | his .219 average, as has Jose Reyes with his .322 |
| Padres made the playoffs. This season, all five teams | | | | OBP and Kazuo Matsui with his .250 OBP. The fringe |
| were sporting records at least at .500 entering | | | | guys need to pick up the production for the Mets to |
| Memorial Day. That won't last, as Colorado will surely | | | | maintain first place. |
| finish below .500, as will either San Diego or San | | | | What the Mets won't have to worry about is the front |
| Francisco. The team best able to give Arizona a run | | | | of their rotation. Tom Glavine is having a fantastic |
| for its money is the Dodgers, and they're a shaky bet | | | | season with his 8-2 record and his 2.59 ERA. So is |
| with the injury risks that dot their lineup. | | | | Pedro Martinez, 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 80 Ks. Behind |
| Arizona is a surprisingly balanced team, sitting in | | | | Glavine and Martinez, things get shaky. Steve Trachsel |
| seventh place overall with a team ERA of 4.15 and | | | | has compiled his usual 4.99 ERA. Victor Zambrano |
| eighth overall with 262 runs scored. The starters have | | | | may never pitch again, so the Mets went out and |
| posted a 4.35 ERA, led by Brandon Webb and his 8-0 | | | | traded for Orlando Hernandez. Jose Lima and Jeremi |
| record and 2.18 ERA. Webb is one of the better | | | | Gonzalez shouldn't be in a big-league rotation, but both |
| pitchers in baseball thus far, and his control so far has | | | | have made three disastrous starts. Brian Bannister |
| been remarkable (walking nine batters in 82.2 innings). | | | | pitched well in his five starts, but he's not a guy that |
| Miguel Batista is 4-2 with a 4.60 ERA and has also | | | | the Mets can depend on yet. The bullpen has been |
| been pitching well. Claudio Vargas, Juan Cruz and | | | | solid, with Aaron Heilman and Duaner Sanchez making |
| Russ Ortiz round out the rotation and may be question | | | | names for themselves with ERAs below 2.40. Billy |
| marks, but Arizona has enough minor league depth to | | | | Wagner has saved 11 games, but has been shaky of |
| swing a trade for a Barry Zito or a Dontrelle Willis to | | | | late. He should settle down. Regardless, the Mets need |
| augment a playoff run (unfortunately for them, the | | | | to find starters and a quality leadoff hitter to hold off |
| Dodgers have that ability as well). The Diamondbacks' | | | | the Braves. If not, it seems like it will be another year |
| 3.79 bullpen ERA has been a pleasant surprise, though | | | | that the Braves beat a more talented team for the NL |
| they need more consistency from appointed closer | | | | East crown. |
| Jose Valverde. He has saved 14 games thus far, but | | | | |